Thursday, September 29, 2011

College Football Predictions - Week 5

After two weeks of only two losses each, we are up to a 72% win percentage against the spread.  The goal is 75%.  I believe after this week, I will be there.

1) #3 Alabama (-5) at #12 Florida - Florida has looked good this year, but they are going up against the Crimson Tide that is one of two teams that are the class of the SEC.  The Alabama defense should be able to hold the Gators in check.

2) #8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin (-8) - This is one of those games you want to watch if you love football.  Both coaches can become snarly if they believe that they are wrong.  They believe in the running game and stout defense.  A true Big Ten game.  I ook at the Huskers and are not sold on them yet.  I am sold on the badgers though.

3) #14 Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. #18 Arkansas (at Arlington TX) - To me, Arkansas is overrated.  We heard last week about them being able to visit Alabama and beat the Crimson Tide.  That didn't even come close to happening.  Watch the Aggies of A&M send a message to the SEC in this game that they can be competitive for the Western Division title.

4) #13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech (-7.5) - Now for the test of the Tigers.  They have beat two ranked teams, but in Death Valley.  I don't think that they can go into the Hokies den and come out winning.  I think that Virginia Tech wins going away.

5) Auburn (+11.5) at #10 South Carolina - Steve Spurrier is winning games, but I'm not impressed with the Gamecocks.  In fact, the fact that the Gamecocks are the Eastern Division favorite tells you how weak that division is.  Auburn is in the competitive SEC West.  I can see the Tigers showing the difference between East and West.

6) #17 Texas (-9) at Iowa State - The Cyclones are 3-0.  And yet, I don't see them as a threat to do anything good.  Look at Wyoming and what they did last week when they played a ranked team.  Watch Iowa State do the same thing, albeit to an overrated ranked team like Texas.

7) Kentucky at #1 LSU (-28) - I like what Joker Phillips is doing at Kentucky, but they do not have the athletes to compete with LSU.  Bayou Bengals win big.

8) Nevada (+28) at #4 Boise State - You don't know how much I want to pick Boise State.  They are by far the better team and they look back at last year and the upset at Nevada and will be seeing red.  I am playing the odds here, taking a 28 point underdog.  If I am wrong, then I need to bang my head against the wall.

9) Notre Dame at Purdue (+13) - This is the Purdue Bowl game.  Notre Dame hasn't looked like they know that they should be blowing people out.  I'll take the team that is looking forward to this game, not the team that is probably taking the opponent lightly.

10) Michigan State (+2.5) at Ohio State - This is the year that Ohio State takes some lumps.  The first lump from a Big Ten team comes from Sparty.  Michigan State should be able to control the ball, get some big plays and use their line play to win this game.

Additional Two

Air Force at Navy (-2.5) - Navy has the horses and the team play to handle the Option from Air Force.  The Commander's Cup should be going to Annnapolis.

UCLA at #6 Stanford (-21) - UCLA looks like a WAC team playing the big boys.  Stanford is one of the big boys of the PAC-12.  Watch for another blowout loss for Rick Neuheisel.

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