2016 NFC Predictions

Well, since the AFC predictions didn't cause the blog to be shut down and a couple of people actually read my picks, I suppose I should finish with predictions of the NFC. 

NFC OVERVIEW: The NFC East is full of a bunch of flawed teams. The NFC West and North looks like 2 team races and the South has a possibility of 3 teams with losing records. The outlook looks like basically the same as last year for playoff teams.

AFC Predictions

The board has been barren lately. Zeb has had plenty of things on his plate, R.J. has experienced computerized racing, and I am moving and taking over a business at the same time. So the board has been put on the back burner. And instead of talking about Hillary, Trump and the two crabby people from the Libertarian and Green Party, let's put out some predictions for the upcoming NFL season.

AFC OVERVIEW: The changing of the guard in this conference is in full swing. Denver after winning the Super Bowl isn't looking like they will repeat, the Indianapolis Colts have dominated the South for years and they are in a dogfight with Jacksonville and Houston, The mighty Pittsburgh Steelers were dethroned last year by the Bengals. But the East still looks like the Kingpin will keep their throne.

2015 College Football Point Spread Picks - Week 2

Well, this hasn't happened in a few years. The first week went decently with a 6-4 record. If Boise State hadn't let a offensively-challenged Washington team back into the game, we would have been off to a rocking the start of the season. Well, let's continue with the prognostication and have an even better Week 2.

2015 College Football Point Spread Picks - Week 1

A new year and a new sense of hope for picking college football games. Last year's unflattering record against the spread is a distant memory. This year could be a little tricky to pick because of the amount of teams that the experts think could reach the playoffs. So without further ado, let's pick 10 games .

2014 NFL Pick 'Em Challenge Winner

The 4th Annual BoSox Tavern NFL Pick 'Em Challenge is in the books!  And the winner is Aaron!  Each year the gang endeavors to see who can pick the most winners each week of the NFL season.  It actually stayed pretty close through the first eight weeks, but Aaron's prowess in pigskin prognostication proved particularly potent, providing the pride of participants with pundit perfuse proficiency!  (whew!)

 
1.  OVERALL WINNER:  Aaron 175 correct picks (65.9%)

BLAIR: 170 wins

JAMES: 170 wins
ZEB: 169 wins
RICK: 166 wins
ROBBIE: 163 wins
GEORGE:  160 wins
ELLERY: 160 wins
BRENT: 162 wins
MIKE: 144 wins
TOM: 77 wins

2.  TOTAL WEEKS WON:

ROBBIE: 4
AARON: 3
BLAIR: 2
GEORGE: 2
ZEB: 2
RICK : 2
JAMES: 1
BRENT: 1
MIKE: 0    
TOM: 0
ELLERY: 0

3.  TOTAL WINS DURING THE PLAYOFFS:

BLAIR: 8
ZEB: 8
AARON: 7
RICK: 6
ROBBIE: 6
JAMES: 6
ELLERY: 5
GEORGE: 5
BRENT: 3
MIKE: 0
TOM: 0

4.  WINNING PERCENTAGE (AS A GROUP): 58.8%.....(eeeh!)

Major College National Championship Pick

 

Oregon is favored by 6. Give me the Ducks 45-38.

College Football Semi-Final Picks

This year was tough for my prognostication. Finished the regular season 8 games under .500. Now I am going to try and pick the playoff winners.

Sugar Bowl - #1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio State (+9) - Alabama is the heavyweight of the SEC. And everybody is still playing with the Week 2 storyline that the Big 10 wasn't that good. I go the other way. I believe that the SEC was over-hyped this year. I just watched the destruction of both Mississippi schools in their respective Bowl games. LSU lost to Notre Dame. The only SEC that has impressed me this bowl season is Georgia. Anyways onto the game.

I don't believe that Blake Sims will be able to get that Alabama offense on track against the Buckeye defense, especially that defensive line. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide defense will be able to hold the Buckeyes offense enough to keep it close. But I am going with Ohio State to win the game. I would take the 9 points each and every time it is offered.
#1 Alabama 20, #4 Ohio State 24

Rose Bowl - #2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida State (+7.5) - Here is the game that I want to see. I think that both offenses go crazy. Both defenses have given up big plays during the season and I think that they will in this game as well. The last two Heisman winners both throw for over 400 yards and it looks like the scoreboard is attached to a pinball machine. In the end, I give the Ducks just enough to win the game, but not cover the spread.
#2 Oregon 45, #3 Florida State 41.

What I see at the National Championship Game:

2014 College Football Odds Picks - Week 15

It is Saturday morning and 1 team is secure in the National playoffs. Oregon goes to the San Francisco area and destroys the Arizona Wildcats by 30 points. The defense looked great and the offense while not stunning in the rain, did more than enough to convince me that going into the playoffs, they should be the #1 seed overall. With wins this weekend, I would also put in Alabama and Ohio State. Alabama because they have proven almost every week that they are a very good team. For Ohio State, you have a pre-season Heisman candidate go down with a season ending injury. Then in Ohio State's last game, you have a current Heisman hopeful go down to a season ending injury. Both are quarterbacks. If Ohio State beats Wisconsin with their third-string QB, then you have a team (hint, hint) that deserves to continue their quest to a possible national championship.

That leaves the 4th spot. Florida State, Baylor, and TCU. That is how I would have them ranked at the outset of the day. I would have to see the three games before rendering a final verdict, but a less than a convincing win by the Seminoles would allow me to entertain Baylor or even TCU making the field. Baylor has to beat K-State and not just a last -second win either. If both Baylor and FSU look less than real good, then TCU would come into the discussion, but for my tastes, TCU is a long shot.

I had already picked the Oregon-Arizona game on the Bite Me Message Board before the pre-game even started.  I give myself props for picking the Ducks at (-10) over the Wildcats.  The rest of my picks are as follows:

Iowa State (+35) at #3 TCU
#1 Alabama (-16.5) vs. #16 Missouri
#9 Kansas State at #6 Baylor (-7)
#4 Florida State vs. #11 Georgia Tech (+4)
#13 Wisconsin vs. #5 Ohio State (+4)
Fresno State vs. #23 Boise State (-23)
Oklahoma State at #20 Oklahoma (-21)

2014 College Football Odds Picks - Week 14

This weekend is more exciting than last weekend. There are some major games and everybody is looking at the playoff committee to see if they are giving any clues about who they are leaning towards. And everybody is asking what the committee means when they assert game control. At the end of this year, I might want the computer back and it's analytical results instead of the feeling model that the selection committee seems it is tilting towards.

#5 TCU (-6.5) at Texas
Stanford at #8 UCLA (-5.5)
#16 Georgia Tech at #9 Georgia (-12.5)
Michigan at #6 Ohio State (-21)
Florida (+7.5) at #3 Florida State
#10 Michigan State (-13) at Penn State
#7 Baylor (-25) at Texas Tech
#4 Mississippi State at #19 Mississippi (+2.5)
#15 Auburn at #1 Alabama (-8.5)
#2 Oregon (-19.5) at Oregon State

2014 College Football Odds Picks Results - Week 13

This week had a few major games, but was headlined by SEC teams playing cupcake teams that they scoff at when anybody else plays them. Florida State escaped by the skin of their teeth yet again and we found out that a player can push an official out of the way and the ACC says that the player was in the right. And we found out that even though Marshall is undefeated, they aren't even the highest ranked Group of Five team in the land. That belongs to the 2 loss Boise State Broncos. And in the SEC, Missouri is close to repeating as SEC East Champions. If that happens, you just shake your head.

A 6-3 record last week. I am now 11 games under .500. Probably not going to make it, but I am going to try to get as close as I can before my bowl bonanza picks.

My Top 10: 1) Oregon 2) Alabama 3) Baylor 4) Florida State
5) Ohio State 6) TCU 7) Mississippi State 8) Michigan State 9) Georgia 10) UCLA 

2014 College Football Odds Picks - Week 13

Everybody gets on the big conferences for scheduling cupcakes during the first month of the season. The SEC schedules them too, but in the middle of the season. Charleston Southern, Western Carolina, and Samford are battling Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn this week. Tough games, I am sure. Anyways, besides the USC/UCLA tilt, there aren't many intriguing games in the Top 10.

There is chatter that the coaches and the school administrations of the Power 5 conferences favor the playoffs expand to 8 teams. If you do that, then have the conference champions of the Power 5 get in, have the Top 2 schools from the rest of college football get in and then have 1 final spot for a deserving Power 5 team. So you have two underdogs from outside the Power 5 conferences and 1 at large team if you do this. 

Charleston Southern at #10 Georgia (NL)
Indiana (+35.5) at #6 Ohio State
Boston College at #3 Florida State (-17)
#8 Mississippi at Arkansas (+3.5)
Western Carolina at #1 Alabama (NL)
Colorado at #2 Oregon (-32.5)
Oklahoma State at #7 Baylor (-29.5)
Vanderbilt at #4 Mississippi State (-30.5)
#19 USC (+4) at #9 UCLA

2014 College Football Odds Picks Results - Week 12

Well, another one of the Top 4 has gone down to defeat. This time it is Mississippi State. They should have been joined by Florida State. Can I have an investigation into the officials of the ACC, please? I swear, the Seminoles get the best calls from the officials on the field that I have ever seen. Anyways, out in PAC land, we have the resurrection of UCLA and USC as possible South division champions along with Utah and Arizona.

My Top 10: 1) Oregon 2) Alabama 3) Baylor 4) Florida State
5) Ohio State 6) TCU 7) Mississippi State 8) Mississippi
9) Michigan State 10) Georgia

Yes, playing bad against a weak team is held against you in what I think and Florida State needing help in a couple of games this year to stay undefeated does play into where I put them. When you have a bye and get rewarded for it, the field is becoming very weak. The last 3 are very flawed teams, but who else do you put there? UCLA? Utah? Kansas State? Arizona? Wisconsin? This is the problem. All the two loss teams have looked for lack of a better term unremarkable. Michigan State is probably the best out of those teams, but they didn't prove in the Ohio State game that they were on par with the Buckeyes.

Picking the two underdogs at home was a good thing. Oregon State and Arkansas pulled through. And brought me a modest 2 week winning streak. I am 14 games under .500. It is still achievable. But when I pick teams that lay eggs like Auburn did vs. Georgia, it makes it tough.

2014 College Football Odds Picks - Week 12

I figured that I would give you some analysis into the muddled Big 10 West standings where 4 teams still have a shot at that division title. Just Kidding. It doesn't matter who wins that division. The national scene is where everybody is looking. The TCU/Baylor decision out of the Big 12 is a topic right now. So is the SEC West and the possibility that every team there will have 2 losses now. The PAC-12 South is a jumbled mess still. In the ACC, we have Florida State and then the smurf schools because they look so small on a national scale. Lots of teams still have everything to play for (are you listening Kirk Ferentz). So let's get to my picks and get the winning percentage higher than the 41% that I am currently at.

#8 Ohio State (-14) at #25 Minnesota
#4 TCU (-28.5) at Kansas
#1 Mississippi State (+10) at #5 Alabama
#9 Auburn (+2.5) at #15 Georgia
#3 Florida State (-2.5) at Miami
#6 Arizona State at Oregon State (+7)
And Finally I am going with a Bret Bielema special
#17 LSU at Arkansas (+1)

2 Home Underdogs and the rest road teams for picks. Could spell disaster or it could be a big success.

2014 College Football Odds Picks Results - Week 11

The playoff race was sure shaken up when Auburn went down in flames to an unranked Texas A&M team.  Florida State looks like they are playing down to their competition. Only a 14 point win vs. Virginia?! And TCU could lose their Top 4 ranking and not lose another game if Baylor runs the table. Oregon looked like zombies during the first part of their game and The Big 10 hopes took a hit when the Buckeyes beat up on Sparty. The 4 team playoff has people politicking all throughout the land. And I would laugh if the SEC West champion lose in Atlanta to the SEC East champion because then I could point and say that the SEC is just like the rest of the conferences. They cannibalize each other. And then I would also point out that the SEC doesn't like scheduling their teams to head north when the weather might be below 60 to 70 degrees.

A 6-2 week put the winning percentage north of 41 this week. And if I have a winning week next week when I pick underdogs, I will be at 50% at the very least. Told ya I was going to rebound after a horrible start to the season.

My Top 10: 1) Oregon, 2) Florida State, 3) Mississippi State, 4) Alabama, 5) TCU, 6) Baylor, 7) Arizona State, 8) Ohio State, 9) Nebraska, 10) Auburn  

2014 College Football Odds Picks - Week 11

The football season is winding down and there are major games to be played from here on out. I was reading about the thing that the SEC is worried about right now. That Alabama, Auburn, and Mississippi State all lose one game from now to the SEC championship game and then a 1 loss Mississippi State team loses in the SEC title game to an SEC East team that already has 2 losses. If that happens and Florida State has 0 losses, Oregon only has 1 loss, TCU or Kansas State only has one loss and Michigan State end with 1 loss, who do you boot out to put in a 2 loss Georgia or Mississippi State team? Or does the selection committee really go off the board and put in Alabama or Auburn? And where does that leave Notre Dame if they finish with one loss? How about Baylor? They have a real good shot at being a one loss team when their season ends. So for SEC fans to be dreaming about two or possibly three teams in the playoff seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

Texas A&M (+23.5) at #3 Auburn
#10 Notre Dame at #9 Arizona State (-2.5)
UTM at #1 Mississippi State (NL)
Virginia (+20.5) at #2 Florida State
#7 Kansas State (+6) at #6 TCU
#14 Ohio State at #8 Michigan State (-3.5)
#5 Alabama (-6.5) at #16 LSU
#4 Oregon (-8) at #17 Utah

2014 College Football Odds Picks Results - Week 10

This week was ugly. 2 wins out of 7 will do that. The big thing that I learned coming out of the weekend is that Florida State, when they are motivated, is the best team out there that I have seen. The major problem for them is that the off the field distractions continue and that might cause them to stumble. As For #1 Mississippi State, I am still not completely sold on them. #3 Auburn still has major lifting to do in order to qualify for the playoffs. And finally, my choice to be the 1st playoff winner in history, Oregon is looking good at the current moment. They have had their yearly stumble and look like they are starting to peak.

My Top 10: 1) Florida State, 2) Oregon, 3) Mississippi State, 4) Michigan State, 5) Alabama, 6) TCU, 7) Auburn, 8) Kansas State, 9) Arizona State, 10) Baylor 

2014 College Football Odds Picks - Week 10

The college football world is buzzing about the inaugural 4 teams that a selection committee spit out on Tuesday. All that I am going to say that it just affirms the SEC bias that people have. LSU has lost two games and all we hear is how tough the Tigers are. Bull(cough). And Arkansas is always a tough game. They haven't won an SEC game within the past 2 years. But there is lots of time for the committee to fix their bias.

As for my picks, let's rock them this week and get to over 40% wins this season. After a 6-1 week, I know that I can achieve that goal. And at least one of the Selection Committee's Top 4 will fall this week. And for me looking at this, it is another week of underdogs primarily.

2014 College Football Odds Picks Results - Week 9

I have finally broke through with a winning week. 6-1-0 for this week. Picked the LSU upset, and was on the right side of those 1 point lines. Kentucky was a 14.5 point dog. Lost by 14. Oregon was a 17 favorite. Won by 18. It does feel nice to actually feel like I know what I am talking about. You couldn't tell that from the first 8 week of picks.

The stupidest thing this week that I saw was a Michigan Wolverine bringing a stake out to Michigan State's stadium and planting in the field pre-game. Why would you do that? You bring ridicule onto your team, you really pissed off the Spartans, just listen to coach D'Antonio in the post-game press conference, and it looks like you can't visualize what it is like to win on a rivals stadium. Hey Big Brother, little brother just kicked your ass again. And no, Mike Hart isn't there to eat those words.

After this week, my Top 10:
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Michigan State
5. Alabama
6. Auburn
7. Georgia
8. Ohio State
9. Notre Dame
10. TCU

2014 College Football Odds Picks - Week 9

After this week, we are going to be 3/4 of the way through the regular season. I am hoping that I can have a great last 3 weeks and get close to the .500 mark for the season. Who could have guessed that both Mississippi schools would be in the Top 3 of the polls right now and it is funny that the politicing has already begun. Marshall has hired a PR firm to try and get into the playoffs because they believe that they will go undefeated this year. Of course if you look at their schedule, there is not very tough teams there. So I don't think that Marshall has a snowballs chance in hell of making it, but it is an example of how crazy this year has been.

2014 College Football Odds Picks Results - Week 8

This year has been a disaster in doing this. I am struggling along at a 33% Winning Percentage. The problem is that most people have no idea which team will show up on a Saturday. Either the world beaters, or the one that just does enough to get by. Alabama scoring 59 points? OK, but Texas A&M scoring 0? You think that cannot happen.

And I am going to argue that the SEC gets a pro-bias from the media and coaches. And I am not going to argue it by looking at the top teams in the conference this year, but at the last SEC ranked in both polls, the LSU Tigers. You are telling me that the LSU Tigers are near the 20th best team in the nation? Have you watched them? They haven't impressed anybody, but yet they are put into the Top 25. Ugh. I hope that the selection committee quashes this nonsense.