2017 College Football Picks Year In Review

Season Record: 72-58-7 (52.55%)

First winning season in 3 years. Of course, this year it was all Top 25 picks instead of random games.

Next year, I hope that someone wants to pick games with me or we have a group picking games. It is fun and interesting to see how other people see things differently than you.

As to the pick of Alabama being #4 and off to the playoffs, I think they got it wrong. I would have put Ohio State in (God how I dislike either team). But I don't have a voice in it. I think that the committee gave too much credence to what injuries meant to losing, and prejudices that are assigned to conferences both positive and negative. Also, they don't seem to mind how Alabama manipulates their schedule to basically have two byes before their LSU and Auburn games and how the SEC "second-tier" teams cannot stand up to challenge those programs that are at the top..

Here is my final Top 10:

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State
5. UCF
6. Alabama
7. Wisconsin
8. USC
9. Penn State
10. Washington

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 14 (Championship Week)

I went 4-1 in my 5 Big Ten Road picks last week (Ohio State fell short by 1 point, figures). I am assured of a winning record this year. Right now I have Wisconsin as my #1 team in the land and UCF is at #5 and could get into what would be my Top 4 if things fall right. I know my rankings don't mean anything. But let's get the final week of picks done and celebrate victory.

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 12

TCU -6
Wisconsin -7.5
Virginia +18.5
Illinois +41
Navy +17.5
Georgia -21.5
Tennessee+15.5
West Virginia-3
UCF -13.5
Virginia +18.5

Sorry about the lack of refinement for the picks. I was on the road and about an hour and a half before the games started and didn't anticipate that I would get to my home anytime soon. So let's do the usual format below the page break.

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 11

The season record is 50-45-5. Picking these games where two ranked teams are playing each other is tough. I like how the professional gamblers will pick a Western Michigan vs. UTEP game for their leadpipe lock of the week, but you have to pay for anything about games that you care about.

1. Arkansas at (24) LSU (-17) - This is probably a sucker bet. Arkansas isn't playing up to their potential, but LSU isn't a powerhouse offense either.

Arkansas 13, LSU 31
Actual Score: Arkansas 10, LSU 33

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 10

I am now 5 games above .500 after a 5-4-1 week. The first rankings are out for the playoffs and I can see 4 out of the Top 6 losing before the end of the season, and that doesn't take into account for games where an also ran comes up and takes a bite out of a favorite.

1. (6) Ohio State at Iowa (+18) - There should be a letdown from the Buckeyes after the comeback vs Penn State last week. The Iowa defense is tough and the Hawkeyes play ranked teams close at home.

Ohio State 27, Iowa 21
Actual Score: Ohio State 24, Iowa 55

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 9

Still 4 over .500. If you feel that I am wrong or just spewing nonsense, all comments are welcome.

1. (5) Wisconsin at Illinois (+27) - The Badgers will win this game. But on the road, it won't be a 4 touchdown win. Even though the opponent is Illinois.

Wisconsin 34, Illinois 20
Actual Score: Wisconsin 24, Illinois 10

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 8

Went 5-5 last week. Still 4 games above .500. The Arkansas/Alabama game is why I don't bet real money on this. Lost by 1/2 a point. Lost Michigan/Indiana by 1 point.

1. (10) Oklahoma State (-7) at Texas - The Longhorns look better than they did at the start of the season, but the letdown from losing to Oklahoma will be seen this week.

Oklahoma State 38, Texas 24
Actual Score: Oklahoma State 13, Texas 10 (OT)

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 7

Coming off a 4-6 record last week, we have a week where there is no ranked teams facing each other. Where are the upsets coming from? I have three.

1. (6) TCU at Kansas State (+6.5) - The Horned Frogs can take control of the Big 12 if they can get past the Wildcats. I don't expect them to.

TCU 31, Kansas State 34
Actual Score: TCU 26, Kansas State 6

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 6

Still 6 games above .500 after treading water the past 2 weeks. Need to get more of a cushion before the big boys play each other later this season.

1. Wake Forest at (2) Clemson (-21.5) - The Demon Deacons might be able to cover if this were basketball. Not on the football field.

Wake Forest 13, Clemson 48
Actual Score: Wake Forest 14, Clemson 28

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 5

Still 6 games above .500. The picks rallied late last week after staring 0-4.

1. Vanderbilt (+9) at (21) Florida - Not sold on the Gators after escaping Kentucky and the Commodores are better than what they showed against Alabama last week.

Vanderbilt 24, Florida 27
Actual Score: Vanderbilt 24, Florida 38

2017 College Football Picks vs The Spread - Week 4

6 Games above .500 for the first 3 weeks is making me feel good.

1. (1) Alabama vs Vanderbilt (+18) - There isn't an upset here. But I believe that the Vandy defense can keep it closer than many people think.

Alabama 27, Vanderbilt 16
Actual Score: Alabama 59, Vanderbilt 0

2017 College Football Picks vs. The Spread - Week 3

A 3-7 week showed me that I just can't go with the big spreads for the favorites.

Week 3 Games:

1. (19) Stanford at San Diego State (+8.5) - The Aztecs have looked good so far. Stepping up in weight class, I think that they will keep it close.

Stanford 28, San Diego State 24
Actual Score: Stanford 17, San Diego State 20

2017 College Football Picks vs. The Spread - Week 2

Week 1 was OK. A 7-2-1 week would have made me money. Let's see if I can continue the good picks.

1. (11) Oklahoma State (-29) at South Alabama - It is unusual that a program like Oklahoma State would go into South Alabama. I don't expect that the Cowboys will have problems with going on the road here.

Oklahoma State 62, South Alabama 14
Actual Score: Oklahoma State 44, South Alabama 7

2017 College Football Picks vs. the Spread - Week 1

I didn't do this last year and I rocked the picks. The blog has been a little thin, so I decided to take the initiative and start doing the picks for college football again. So let's see if I can do better than I have before on the blog.

WEEK 1

1. UTEP at (7) Oklahoma (-43) - Bob Stoops is no longer the head coach at Oklahoma. Means that the program has something to prove. Don't see the Miners scoring more than 10 points while the Sooners look like the Sooners of yesteryear.

UTEP 7, Oklahoma 66
Actual Score: UTEP 7, Oklahoma 56

2. (11) Michigan (-3.5) vs. (17) Florida - If Alabama vs. FSU wasn't this weekend, this would be the marquee game. I would have picked Michigan to win even without multiple Gator starters suspended for their roles in the Student store fraud scandal. Jim Harbaugh has the Wolverines looking good.

Michigan 27, Florida 20
Actual Score: Michigan 33, Florida 17

3. Western Michigan at (4) USC (-27.5) - Another one of the opening game creampuffs that major programs like to schedule. Watch USC score 50 and roll over the Broncos which get a payday.

Western Michigan 14, USC 55
Actual Score: Western Michigan 31, USC 49

4. Appalachian State (+14) at (15) Georgia - Classic game where I believe that the Bulldogs are looking at next week's game against Notre Dame and not taking App St. as seriously as they should. Georgia will win, but not by the margin they should.

App St. 24, Georgia 34
Actual Score: App St. 10, Georgia 31

5. Georgia Southern at (12) Auburn (-34) - Georgia Southern is not going to like this trip to Auburn. I think that the Tigers are the biggest threat to Alabama this season. Auburn shows why in this game.

Georgia Southern 10, Auburn 52
Actual Score: Georgia Southern 7, Auburn 41

6. (16) Louisville at Purdue (+26.5) - There is no upset here, but with the Boilermakers bringing back the Big 10 passing leader from last year in David Blough, I expect the game to be closer than what many think.

Louisville 45, Purdue 31
Actual Score: Louisville 35, Purdue 28

7. (3) Florida State vs. (1) Alabama (-7) - Even though I believe that both of these teams could be good enough to make the playoffs, you don't pick against Nick Saban in the regular season and a big game.

Florida State 21, Alabama 34
Actual Score: Florida State 7, Alabama 24

8. BYU at (13) LSU (-14.5) - LSU is the better team, but BYU already had their first game which helps. Give me the Tigers just squeaking by on the point spread.

BYU 20, LSU 35
Actual Score: BYU 0, LSU 27

9. (22) West Virginia at (21) Virginia Tech (-4) - Both teams have new starting QB's and both believe that they can win their respective leagues. Let's go with the home team and the fact that there is something about Dana Holgorsen that I don't trust in pressure games.

West Virginia 24, Virginia Tech 31
Actual Score: West Virginia 24, Virginia Tech 31

10. (25) Tennessee at Georgia Tech (+3) - I fully expect the Yellow Jackets to beat the Volunteers outright. I think that Butch Jones has the foundation of the Tennessee program build on sand, not concrete.

Tennessee 21, Georgia Tech 31
Actual Score: Tennessee 42, Georgia Tech 41 2OT

Week 1 Record: 7-2-1
Overall Record: 7-2-1

The Cleveland Browns Did The Right Thing By Trading The #2 Pick

R.J. and I make fun of the Cleveland Browns on the forums of the BoSox Tavern Blog. We both seem to realize that the team has made some real bad decisions since coming back to the league (Tim Couch, Johnny Manziel, Trent Richardson, Courtney Brown, and Braylon Edwards just to name a few). Those names don't include the revolving door at G.M., Coach, President of Football Operations, Popcorn Vendors, Cheerleaders, and anybody else associated with this franchise. But this new regime that has been assembled since January has made a smart move by trading the #2 Pick in the 2016 draft to Philadelphia. Let's examine why.

1. Let's say that Carson Wentz has a Hall of Fame career. And he would have been the Browns pick at #2. It doesn't matter. Why? The Browns don't have the support staff on the field to make this happen. At best, Cleveland is 3 years away from considering a playoff run because of the lack of talent on the team. Can you see the team putting in a rookie Quarterback with an Offensive Line that is inadequate at best? As we have seen time and time again with this team, the Quarterback will eventually start shucking and ducking. (See David Carr in Houston to see the prime example of this). We know that RG III isn't a long term answer. He doesn't have the escapability that he had in his Rookie year. His ability to get injured does not bode well for playing all 16 games. Josh McCown? Same with injuries. So you bring in Wentz and there is no O-Line to keep him upright, you might as well start identifying your next QB three years from now. You know that he will get hit time and time again. A QB is only as good as his Offensive Line makes him. And there is a lack of an Offensive Line in Cleveland.

2. Hue Jackson. Hue has his man in RG III. I am going to assume that he was the one that convinced Upper Management that he can rehabilitate Griffin. He is known as a coach that can get the most out of his QB's. I trust the Head Coach to know what he wants to do with the team. RG III is a bargain if he regains what made him special in his rookie year. I don't think he can, but who am I to argue with Hue?

3. The picks acquired. While only getting a 3rd and 4th round pick this year, the #1 in 2017 and #2 in 2018 are the real value picks here. The Browns got those picks while going back 6 spots in the 2016 draft that they are not convinced has a Franchise QB available to them. So you get an unsexy pick at #8 like a DE or a LT (And yes I know they have Joe Thomas. That will come into play later in this post). It improves the team and brings in more new blood of players that are highly thought of. If the scouting department does it's job, we can see talent starting to accumulate in Cleveland.

4. Setting realistic expectations of the Cleveland fans. Each and every year, we hear Browns fans telling us that the team will surprise us by making the playoffs and showing why they have faith. Well, now they can face the cold hard reality that the team needs to rebuild everything. There should be nobody safe from being cut or traded. And this leads us into #5 which will anger Browns fans.

5. Trade Joe Thomas. Right now, this is the guy that you can truthfully say is the best player on the team. He is 31 years old. He is a valuable commodity for many teams. Now is the time to trade him. You can get at least another 1st Round pick if not more for him in a trade. Here is what I do if I am in the Cleveland Brass. I let word leak that Joe Thomas is available for the right price. I ask for a 1st Rounder in 2016 or 17. Also included is a 3rd or 4th rounder in 2017. And here is the key, a developmental QB that the team likes. That way, you add more pieces that are highly thought of, you get that mid round pick that makes teams good if they can find starters there and you possibly have your QB for the next 10 years if the developmental QB develops like you want while watching the game from the sidelines for a year or two.

The new and shiny QBs come out each and every year. And you can always grab one if you want. You know the price, but the Browns have the worst roster in the league and the past couple of drafts haven't satisfied anybody. The talent level needs to be improved in all facets of the team. A rookie QB will not do it for this franchise. Getting the picks they did from Philadelphia and the picks and possible parts from a Joe Thomas trade will allow the talent level to rise. And from that point, we will see if the Moneyball Gang for Football can get this franchise up off the floor (no, not laying right beside a passed out Johnny Manziel). Because right now, this team is the laughingstock of the league.

2014 NFL Pick 'Em Challenge Winner

The 4th Annual BoSox Tavern NFL Pick 'Em Challenge is in the books!  And the winner is Aaron!  Each year the gang endeavors to see who can pick the most winners each week of the NFL season.  It actually stayed pretty close through the first eight weeks, but Aaron's prowess in pigskin prognostication proved particularly potent, providing the pride of participants with pundit perfuse proficiency!  (whew!)

 
1.  OVERALL WINNER:  Aaron 175 correct picks (65.9%)

BLAIR: 170 wins

JAMES: 170 wins
ZEB: 169 wins
RICK: 166 wins
ROBBIE: 163 wins
GEORGE:  160 wins
ELLERY: 160 wins
BRENT: 162 wins
MIKE: 144 wins
TOM: 77 wins

2.  TOTAL WEEKS WON:

ROBBIE: 4
AARON: 3
BLAIR: 2
GEORGE: 2
ZEB: 2
RICK : 2
JAMES: 1
BRENT: 1
MIKE: 0    
TOM: 0
ELLERY: 0

3.  TOTAL WINS DURING THE PLAYOFFS:

BLAIR: 8
ZEB: 8
AARON: 7
RICK: 6
ROBBIE: 6
JAMES: 6
ELLERY: 5
GEORGE: 5
BRENT: 3
MIKE: 0
TOM: 0

4.  WINNING PERCENTAGE (AS A GROUP): 58.8%.....(eeeh!)

Week 1 Pick 'Em Results

I promise not to defile this blog site with discussion or news about that team from the City of Washington, DC, but since I'm a "homer" born and raised in DC (thus "DC Homer"), you're gonna have to listen to a smidge of my grousing.  So, for me, Week 1 was a total disaster, but not totally unexpected.  RGIII ain't it; and if the Houston game is any indication, The Team, and our rookie coach, are facing a pretty typically horrible season.   Here's my summary of the game:

 

  - "...and Griffin throws it away..."

  - "...and Griffin is sacked!"

  - "...and Griffin throws it away..."

  - "...and the point after touchdown is....BLOCKED!!"

  - "...Morris runs up the middle to the 30, the 20, the 10, the...FUMBLE!"

  - "...and the punt is BLOCKED....picked up for a score!"

  - "...and Griffin is sacked!"

  - "...and Griffin throws it away..."

 

 

(...sigh...at least we ain't Dallas!)

 

I'm officially on the Curt Cousins bandwagon!!!!

Here are the Week 1 results of our Pick 'Em Challenge:

1.  Overall winner:  Jim Randall with 12 wins.  Jim wins in the tie breaker (48 pts) with Ellery (56 pts).

2.  Results:

JIM:  12 wins (75%)
ELLERY: 12 wins (75%)
BLAIR:  11 wins (69%)
ZEB:  10 wins (63%)
AARON:  10 wins (63%)
GEORGE:  9 wins (56%)
RICK:  9 wins (56%)
BRENT:  9 wins (56%)
MIKE:  9 wins (56%)
TOM:  7 wins (44%)
ROBBIE:  5 wins (31%)

3.  Overall group performance:  103 correct picks (59%)

2014 College Football Spread Picks Results - Week 2

The tale of this season looks like a Rocky movie. Let's go with Rocky 3. I get blitzed in the early parts of the movie, weeks 1 and 2. Work at improving during the middle of the season and then in the end overcome long odds and end on top. I am above the Mendoza line after this week. However, the win percentage is still embarrassing.

Thoughts outside the Top 10: The PAC-12 needs to suspend Pat Hayden for his actions on Saturday on the sidelines. The AD of a team should not come down and argue with on the field officials. UCLA is struggling against inferior opponents. Right now, I vote for Vanderbilt to be the worst team in FBS. Finally, lots of ranked teams scraped by the skin of their teeth last week, Nebraska and North Carolina just to name two. 

2014 College Football Spread Picks - Week 2

OK, Week 1 is usually bad for me and this year was no exception. A .143 winning percentage won't get me my own late night show promising winners and earning you money online from Vegas. But what it does do is allow me to say that it can't get any worse and not have much pressure on me. Come on now, am I going to worry that I might go below a .100 Winning percentage? No. And 4 of the Top 10 teams I cannot pick because three have no lines and Georgia doesn't play this weekend. I want to be above the Mendoza Line after this weekend, so here we go picking winners.

2014 College Football Picks Results - Week 1

Recalibration is required here. 1 win out of 7 is not acceptable. The SEC is appearing to be not so tough at the bottom. The Big 12 looked decent outside of Iowa State and the PAC-12 appears to be overrated with their close calls. Thank goodness I am not betting real money on these picks.

Quick Thoughts Outside The Top 10: Ole Miss is not a Top 20 team. Wisconsin is still trying to get over the Bret Bielema choking problem with expectations. The rebuild job in Washington for Chris Peterson appears to be a larger one than first expected. Finally, the Swamp really was a swamp with the monsoons that fell on the highly anticipated Vandals-Gators game that was not played.