Thursday, July 20, 2006

Sox Math

A few days ago I did some very quick math analying the Sox's projected finish to the season. I figure Theo crew do this every year. Basically, I took the games left to play before the last two wins with KC and made the following assumptions. I didn't include make up games.

1.) the Sox will win 75% of all games vs. teams with less than a .500 winning record.
2.) they will go .500 against the above .500 teams.

Well... guess what, it cam to 97 wins! I think that gives them a decent chance at the playoffs. Any thoughts? By the way, the projected winning percentage was about the same as their current - ~.600.

32 games against below 500 teams and 36 against above 500.

Here is the numbers games left by opponent.

NY 7
Sea 6
Oak 6
TB 5
KC 6
Bal 9
Det 3
Tor 8
Chw 3
Min 3

I think they can get to 97 wins with who they play the rest of the way. If they can deal with Toronto a bit better and sweep KC, TB, and


AA said...

Nice cipherin', Tom. It does suck that we play Toronto so many more times because they always seem to have our number. Hopefully Catanalano, Zaun, and Wells get lost on the way to the ballpark those days.
Speaking of Toronto, how about the Hillenbrand debacle? This is further evidence of how much of a dickhead he is, not that there was much doubt after he was sent to Arizona.
Bummer about Wakefield, huh? Losing possibly the most dependable and consistent arm this side of Papelsmear for 4-6 weeks is going to hurt, much more than the Wells or Clement situation. Still, I don't see Theo going crazy at the deadline to fill the void. It seems like he should hang onto what we've got, and rightly so. I just hope we can stay afloat and not overtax the arms we do have in the meantime. Based on the past two starts, hopefully we've turned the corner on the 5 or 6 innings and out situation.
Let's see what Schilling has up his sleeve today...

By the way, I wrote a lengthy piece on some of favorite action movies last night (about an hour and a half's worth) but my *$#@ing dial-up connection went down at some point and I couldn't copy and paste what I had written from my open window when I re-established the connection. (Any pointers as to how I can do that in the future would be greatly appreciated.) All was not lost though - I was able to print out the full text so I plan to re-type what I wrote tonight. Not that youguys probably give a shit, of course.
Also... I know this belongs on Inside Zebster but I found it rather interesting that the blog indicating the fact that a candidate for Governor has been visiting the site immediately followed one discussing the taint. Priceless.

Zebster said...

Looks good, Bro, and I agree. In fact, look at it if they just play slightly over .500 against good teams.
Now if the Yanks would just fold.
Can't believe none of you guys have answered the trivia question on the latest Brit Open post. And that no one's given me props for picking the HR derby winner.
That was really nice and welcomed job by Beckett yesterday.

Zebster said...

I can't believe you didn't comment on the taint. LOL I don't always do this but I remember to when Blogger's sluggish...I keep saving as draft. Probably not the best technical advice but.
yeah, the Wake thing sucks. When's Clement due back? What have I missed about Hillenbrand? I thought he was a clubhouse and fan fav when he was here...very clutch and hardnosed. Obviously there's stuff I haven't heard.

AA said...

He seemed fine when he was here but when he spouted off about the Sox after he left left a bit of a bad taste in my mouth. And while this is perhaps below the belt a bit, the one thing I do remember about him off the field was how incredibly stupid he sounded when he gave interviews. I don't expect ballplayers to be physicists or anything but he seemed like the type of guy who would sign autographs in crayon.

TrotRocks said...

It's the 'Roids. Shea it ain't so, is in fact so.

As for your technical difficulties....if you are in a hurry, write the thing in Word, then email to your office address, then cut and paste it into the Blog field.

AA said...

I clearly wasn't in a hurry since I spent so much time writing the thing but your suggestion is very good. I could even do that right at home.
These newfangled things that all you kids use these days...

LittleCuz said...

Man is the engineer coming out now.....Mathmatical analysis?!?! (*&*%$ my brain hurts just thinking about it. The shock of you actually posting was enough, but math on top of that......too much for me this morning....

You know AA I thought the same thing initially, but then I heard the reason he was let go was that he missed the game due to having to go a meeting about adopting, it seems the adoption came through much quicker than anticipated. In this case Shea had his priorities right, and if that is the reason he was let go, I'd spouting off from the roof tops too.....

AA said...

Maybe, but I heard that he was simply miffed that he didn't get some sort of congratulations from the team which then set him off. Who knows? It just seems odd that a team in the playoff hunt would let go of a fairly productive player - in the middle of a game, of all times - if he wasn't basically disruptive in general. Something pissed someone off, that's for sure.